How will adaptive learning adjust to the AI revolution?

Published in February 2025, the Fosway 9-Grid™ for Learning Systems looks at the market for Suites and Specialist platforms in the learning technology space. Here, Fosway analysts ask whether adaptive learning or AI assistants will win out – or will they co-exist?

Ultimate Personalisation: Adaptive vs AI buddy

Last year one of our headlines was ‘Adaptive, the ultimate in personalisation, is here to stay’. Whilst this may still be true, it is particularly relevant to product knowledge rather than to skills development. The new competitor to adaptive is the AI assistant/buddy, that helps each individual learner improve their skills in the context of their role and what the AI comes to know about them.

Rather than enabling adaptive pathways within existing content, AI buddies can create and synthesise learning and content on the fly, leveraging existing solutions in piecemeal form or constructing unique solutions as they go. This approach prompts many questions and challenges too – especially when linked to compliance or skills certification. But the genie is out of the bottle and expect the use of these tools to expand significantly.

Ultimate Search: NLP or AI assistant?

Over recent years Fosway and buyers alike have challenged vendors to improve the search capabilities within learning systems beyond just course title and description. Many have integrated a natural language Google-like search, responding with answer, and where it is referenced, for further study. Recognising that many consumers now use generative AI as a search tool, some vendors are now hedging their bets with both a search bar and an AI-driven chatbot.

In the short term both options are valid as there are many buyers that will not yet be allowed the AI option within their organisations. But perhaps a subsequent question is, should the AI assistant be provided by the learning vendor at all? Or will it be an AI copilot from the preferred IT partner already approved by the corporate’s legal, security or governance department?

Will interoperability standards compliance still matter?

25 years ago, the key standards question was is the platform AICC or SCORM compliant? Interoperability was essential for learning systems, and despite xAPI’s greater capabilities, SCORM 1.2 remains the dominant standard. Some newer vendors have even resisted being compliant (the older ones never gave up!), opting for proprietary tracking of a learner’s progress, and less experienced buyers have either overlooked the question or assumed compliance.

As these newer players compete with industry leaders, standards compliance has again become a must-have in RFPs. The historical purpose was clear—ensuring content was automatically trackable across different learning systems without recreating the courseware. But will this still be necessary in the future? With AI fundamentally reshaping rapid content creation and replication, the need for standards may diminish.

For now, AI authoring tools struggle with quality, and many organisations still require content access across multiple systems. So, in the short term, SCORM and xAPI remain relevant, but a simpler AI-driven solution may emerge in the future.

This is an excerpt from the Fosway 9-Grid™ for Learning Systems. Get the full insight and discover all the latest market and solution trends by reading the whole report here.

What should you do next?

• Sign up to be part of Digital Learning Realities 2025 – ignore the hype and be part of the reality of modern digital learning. Share your experiences in this year’s research cycle here.
• Will AI assistants subsume the trend of personalisation through adaptive learning? Fosway’s strategic AI project for 2025: ‘AI in Learning’, aims to find out.

Other recommended reading

• Browse everything related to AI and Learning Systems in the Fosway Group Knowledge Centre. Find out more here.
• The 2025 Fosway 9-Grid^TM for Digital Learning– full report. Just released: the latest look at the market and solution trends in learning content providers – get the full analysis today.
• Beyond the hype, what is the reality of AI for Learning Systems? One of the biggest talking points within our learning industry today is experience. AI can be used in many ways to help.

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